My predictions are based on several factors:
- The last two Popes were 78 and 76 when elected. The cardinals will likely pick someone younger than 75 but not under 60.
- For four hundred years until 1978, the Papacy was ruled exclusively by Italians. Then we had a Pole, a German, and an Argentinian. The pendulum might now swing back towards Italy.
- The next Pope will probably neither be a clear break from Pope Francis’ tone and priorities, nor someone who will embrace them wholeheartedly.
5. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungarian, 72) – A man of towering intellect who studied under Benedict XVI. He speaks nearly 12 languages and has written over 40 books on theology.
4. Cardinal Luis Tagle (Filipino, 63) – Famous for his social media use and outgoing personality, Tagle is perceived as being especially popular with young people. He also has experience both as a pastor and working in the Curia.
3. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italian, 70) – A lifelong diplomat, Parolin has been the Secretariat of State during Francis’ entire pontificate. He is probably best positioned to understand how the gears of the Vatican work.
2. Cardinal Fridolin Besungu (Congolese, 65) – Besungu has been one of the most recent starts of Catholic central Africa. He is passionate advocate for the poor and Laudato Si. He has also spoken out against tyranny in his own country. He vocally disagreed with Fiducia Supplicans but found a remarkably diplomatic way to refuse its application in Africa that did not alienate the Pope.
1. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italian, 60) – As Patriarch of Jerusalem, he has one of the toughest gigs in the Church, but he has embraced it with courage and grace. He is a tireless advocate for peace in the Middle East and advocate for the forgotten.
My ultimate predication is that Cardinal Pizzaballa will be elected Pope on the 2nd day on the 4th ballot (3rd of the 2nd day). He will take the name Pope John Paul III.
As a non-cardinal, I don’t have a vote in the conclave. If I did, there would be my top five personal choices.
5. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italian, 60) – Pizzaballa has put his life on the line more times than maybe any other cardinal elector. He even offered himself to Hamas in exchange for Israeli hostages. He understands firsthand the horrors of war and the need for peace.
4. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungarian, 72) – While there were many things I liked about Pope Francis, I miss Benedict XVI a lot. Erdő feels like a younger, more confident Benedict. Aside from his incredible mind, he also understands the crisis of faith and character in Europe, including a measured approach to immigration.
3. Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk (Ukrainian, 54) – It is an absolute shame that Shevchuk is neither a patriarch nor a cardinal. The only reason he is neither is out of deference to Russia, who does not deserve it. He is smart, courageous, and direct. Plus, I would love to see an Eastern Catholic bishop as Pope to make us truly a universal church.
2. Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinean, 79) – Sarah is the Ron Swanson of the college: intense, direct, wise, and totally fearless. Like many cardinals, he understands the future of the church lies in rediscovering our ancient traditions and being more disciplined in our evangelization. However, he expresses this sentiment with more tact and ferocity than most.
1. Cardinal
Giorgio Marengo (Italian, 50) – The proof is in the pudding. In 1992, there were exactly zero Catholics in Mongolia. Today, there are several thousand and rising, due to missionary efforts of Marengo. He has the heart of a true evangelist who wants to bring souls to Christ but does so in the most tender and loving way possible.
Of the most important thing is to pray. Pray for the response of Pope Francis. Pray that the cardinals listen to the Holy Spirit and choose a great successor. When the man is chosen, pray for him and give him your obedience. It will all be fine. God’s got our back.
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